📊 Signal Scoreboard — May 12, 2026
Reddit vs. Wall Street — weekly signal performance report. May 11, 2026.
📊 Signal Scoreboard — May 12, 2026
🏆 Performance
5-day record: 32W–36L (47.1% accuracy)
$100/signal portfolio: $6,800 deployed → $6,875.84 (+1.1% return)
We're slightly ahead on pure capital, but the win rate is underwater. That's the honest read.
📋 This Week's Signals — Recent Closures
$INTC — ✅ Reddit Won
- Signal date: Apr 27 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.57
- What Reddit said: Retail saw Intel as a turnaround play; mainstream media still treating it as a slow-bleed legacy dividend stock.
- Entry price: $84.99 → 5-day close: $108.15 (+27.25%)
- Result: INTC ripped hard in 5 days. Reddit's conviction paid off. This is the kind of gap we're designed to catch—early retail enthusiasm that mainstream hadn't priced in yet.
$NVDA — ✅ Reddit Won
- Signal date: Apr 28 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 0.97
- What Reddit said: Retail was significantly more bearish on competitive threats than the bullish mainstream consensus.
- Entry price: $213.17 → 5-day close: $207.83 (-2.51%)
- Result: Short the gap, stock fell. Small win, but the directional call was right. Retail saw cracks in the narrative before Wall Street's morning notes caught up.
$CAR — ❌ Reddit Lost
- Signal date: Apr 29 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 1.50
- What Reddit said: Retail bullish on hedging opportunities; mainstream overwhelming bearish.
- Entry price: $181.15 → 5-day close: $154.06 (-14.95%)
- Result: This was our worst call this week. Reddit was wrong. The gap was there—a real divergence—but the thesis failed. Stock tanked hard. Sometimes retail sees a bottom that isn't there yet.
⏳ Signals Still Being Tracked
| Ticker | Signal Date | Gap Type | Gap Score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BT | Apr 27 | Positive Gap | 0.65 | Pending 5-day score |
| INTC (2nd signal) | Apr 29 | Negative Gap | 0.80 | Pending 5-day score |
| AMD | Apr 29 | Positive Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
| SPOT | Apr 29 | Positive Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
| ORCL | Apr 29 | Positive Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
| INTC (3rd signal) | Apr 30 | Negative Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
| RDDT | Apr 30 | Positive Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
| GOOGL | May 1 | Positive Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
| META | May 1 | Positive Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
| INTC (4th signal) | May 5 | Positive Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
| AMZN | May 5 | Positive Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
| PYPL | May 6 | Negative Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
| GOOGL (2nd) | May 7 | Positive Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
| INTC (5th signal) | May 8 | Positive Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
| CWEB | May 8 | Negative Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
| NVDA (2nd) | May 11 | Negative Gap | — | Pending 5-day score |
D-Day status: Ready. 64 signals scored to date. Threshold met.
🔬 What Is This?
US Market Sentiment Watchdog tracks the gap between what Reddit's retail investors are saying and what mainstream financial media is covering. When those two diverge sharply, we log a signal.
How signals are generated:
1. Every day, our pipeline scans Reddit's investing communities and mainstream financial headlines
2. We score the sentiment gap (0.0–1.0) between retail and mainstream for the most-discussed tickers
3. Signals with gap score ≥ 0.5 are logged: "Positive Gap" (Reddit bullish, media bearish) or "Negative Gap" (Reddit bearish, media bullish)
4. We track the actual price movement 5 and 10 trading days later
The $100 Hypothesis:
Every signal = a hypothetical $100 directional bet. Positive Gap → long $100. Negative Gap → short $100. No leverage, no stops. We track P&L honestly — wins and losses both.
Why we publish this:
Most financial newsletters hide poor weeks. We don't. Every Monday. If the thesis is broken, you'll know first.
🎩 Mark's Take
We're at 47% on a 50/50 coin-flip baseline. That's not luck; that's statistical noise grinding us down. But INTC's 27% move and NVDA's directional win show the gap does exist—we're just not sizing it right. The CAR disaster is a reminder that a large sentiment divergence doesn't guarantee the retail side is right; sometimes it just means retail is early and wrong. Next week we'll have 16 more signals scoring in. That data will tell us if this is a broken system or just a slow start.
All signals are for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.