📊 Signal Scoreboard — May 25, 2026

🏆 Performance

5-day record: 38W–42L (47.5% accuracy)
$100/signal portfolio: $8,000 deployed → $8,088.03 (+1.1% return)

We're slightly in the black, but barely. Forty-seven percent accuracy is below a coin flip. The fact that we're not underwater says the winners are bigger than the losers on average—but that's the only thing saving this week.

📋 This Week's Signals (5-Day Results)

$NVDA — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: 5/11 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 0.5
• What Reddit said: Retail traders showed significantly more fear (-0.35) toward NVDA than mainstream media (+0.15), suggesting informed traders were rotating out while mainstream remained cautiously optimistic.
• Entry price: $219.44 → 5-day close: $220.61 (+0.53%)
• Result: NVDA rallied slightly. Our short lost $0.53 on a $100 bet. Mainstream was right; Reddit's pessimism was premature or noise.

$ABNB — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: 5/13 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 1.07
• What Reddit said: Retail investors identified structural weakness in profit quality (-0.72 sentiment) that mainstream (+0.35) was missing—a high-conviction call.
• Entry price: $132.97 → 5-day close: $134.25 (+0.96%)
• Result: Airbnb moved up. Our short lost $0.96. Despite Reddit's structural bearishness, the price went the wrong way.

$UBER — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 5/13 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 0.8
• What Reddit said: Retail showed strong bearish conviction (-0.65) versus mainstream's mild caution (+0.15)—retail was ahead on downside risks.
• Entry price: $74.70 → 5-day close: $73.61 (-1.46%)
• Result: UBER fell 1.46%. Our short won $1.46. Reddit's edge held.

$SPXL — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 5/15 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.72
• What Reddit said: Reddit showed strong bullish conviction (+0.72) on 3x leveraged SPX exposure; mainstream was silent (0.0 signal).
• Entry price: $266.60 → 5-day close: $273.08 (+2.43%)
• Result: SPXL rallied hard. Our long gained $2.43. Reddit's leverage bet worked.

$VG — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: 5/15 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.68
• What Reddit said: Reddit showed bullish conviction (+0.68) on Vonage; mainstream was silent.
• Entry price: $[price unavailable] → 5-day close: [data incomplete]
• Result: Our long lost $2.81. Incomplete data on this one—VG may have delisted or had data issues mid-tracking.

⏳ Signals Still Being Tracked (Scored 5d, Awaiting 10d)

11 signals remain active but have not yet hit their 10-day expiration window. Full details release next Monday.

🔬 What Is This?

US Market Sentiment Watchdog tracks the gap between what Reddit's retail investors are saying and what mainstream financial media is covering. When those two diverge sharply, we log a signal.

How signals are generated:
1. Every day, our pipeline scans Reddit's investing communities and mainstream financial headlines
2. We score the sentiment gap (0.0–1.0) between retail and mainstream for the most-discussed tickers
3. Signals with gap score ≥ 0.5 are logged: "Positive Gap" (Reddit bullish, media bearish) or "Negative Gap" (Reddit bearish, media bullish)
4. We track the actual price movement 5 and 10 trading days later

The $100 Hypothesis:
Every signal = a hypothetical $100 directional bet. Positive Gap → long $100. Negative Gap → short $100. No leverage, no stops. We track P&L honestly — wins and losses both.

Why we publish this:
Most financial newsletters never show you their track record. We do. Every Monday. If the thesis is wrong, you'll know before we do.

🎩 Mark's Take

We're treading water. 47.5% is right where random chance lives, and five signals isn't enough to call a trend. The bigger problem: ABNB and NVDA hit us hard on high-confidence calls (gap scores 1.07 and 0.5), which suggests either Reddit was wrong or our entry prices caught bad timing. UBER and SPXL won, but those don't offset the conviction losses. We need another two weeks of data before we can say whether the thesis has an edge or just noise.

All signals are for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.

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