📊 Signal Scoreboard — May 26, 2026

🏆 Performance

5-day record: 38W–42L (47.5% accuracy)
$100/signal portfolio: $8,000 deployed → $8,088.03 (+1.1% return)

We're flat-to-slightly-positive on a mediocre week. Nearly 50-50 coin flip accuracy, but the winners paid better than the losers cost us — that's the only thing keeping us above water.

📋 This Week's Signals (Scored in Last 5 Days)

$NVDA — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: May 11 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 0.5
• What Reddit said: Retail significantly more fearful (-0.35) than mainstream (+0.15), signaling informed rotation out of chip exposure.
• Entry price: $219.44 → 5-day close: $220.61 (+0.53%)
• Result: Short position lost $0.53 on the trade. Reddit predicted downside; NVDA held flat-to-slightly-up. The gap existed—retail was right to be scared—but the timing was off. This is classic: correct thesis, wrong execution window.

$ABNB — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: May 13 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 1.07
• What Reddit said: Retail identified structural profit weakness (-0.72 sentiment vs. mainstream +0.35) that consensus was missing—highest urgency flag of the week.
• Entry price: $132.97 → 5-day close: $134.25 (+0.96%)
• Result: Short position lost $0.96. The thesis was sound—margin compression in short-term rental is real—but the stock rallied into earnings optimism anyway. High gap score doesn't guarantee 5-day accuracy.

$UBER — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: May 13 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 0.8
• What Reddit said: Retail bearish (-0.65) vs. mainstream cautiously positive (+0.15) on consumer spending deterioration.
• Entry price: $74.70 → 5-day close: $73.61 (-1.46%)
• Result: Short position gained $1.46. This one worked. Retail was ahead of consensus on macro headwinds to ride-sharing. Clean short.

$SPXL — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: May 15 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.72
• What Reddit said: Retail showing conviction on 3x leveraged SPX exposure (+0.72 sentiment) with zero mainstream signal.
• Entry price: $266.60 → 5-day close: $273.08 (+2.43%)
• Result: Long position gained $2.43. Retail was right—leveraged index bulls were front-running Friday's broad rally. Straightforward winner.

$VG — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: May 15 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.68
• What Reddit said: Bullish Reddit (+0.68) with no mainstream noise—classic retail discovery trade.
• Entry price: $[data incomplete] → 5-day close: [incomplete data]
• Result: Long position lost $2.81 on thin volume. Illiquid names cut both ways; no slippage on entry, but no bid on exit either.

⏳ Signals Still Being Tracked (10-Day Window)

80 total signals scored over 5 days. 11 signals still building 10-day history.

🔬 What Is This?

US Market Sentiment Watchdog tracks the gap between what Reddit's retail investors are saying and what mainstream financial media is covering. When those two diverge sharply, we log a signal.

How signals are generated:
1. Every day, our pipeline scans Reddit's investing communities and mainstream financial headlines
2. We score the sentiment gap (0.0–1.0) between retail and mainstream for the most-discussed tickers
3. Signals with gap score ≥ 0.5 are logged: "Positive Gap" (Reddit bullish, media bearish) or "Negative Gap" (Reddit bearish, media bullish)
4. We track actual price movement 5 and 10 trading days later

The $100 Hypothesis:
Every signal = a hypothetical $100 directional bet. Positive Gap → long $100. Negative Gap → short $100. No leverage, no stops. We publish P&L honestly—wins and losses both.

Why we publish this:
Most financial newsletters hide their losers. We don't. Every Monday. If the thesis is broken, you'll see it before anyone else.

🎩 Mark's Take

We're at 47.5%—not visibly broken, but not working either. The gap signals that do work (UBER, SPXL) tend to be macro-driven or macro-timed. The ones that miss (ABNB, NVDA) are fundamentally correct but get buried by short-term momentum. This week tells us the thesis needs a timing filter—Reddit is smarter than consensus, but sometimes consensus is just early. We're refining the 5-day window.

All signals are for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.

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