📊 Signal Scoreboard — April 13, 2026

🏆 Performance

5-day record: 12W–15L (44.4% accuracy)
$100/signal portfolio: $2,700 deployed → $2,768.30 (+2.5% return)

We're profitable on a terrible win rate. That's because when we're right, we're really right—$AMC up 37.8% on a $1.40 gap is carrying a lot of the weight. Most calls are small losses. A few are explosions. That's gap-signal math.

📋 This Week's Signals

$AMC — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: March 31 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 1.40
• What Reddit said: Retail bullish (0.68) while mainstream dumped on the stock (–0.72)—the biggest divergence we've logged in weeks.
• Entry price: $0.98 → 5-day close: $1.35 (+37.76%)
• Result: This is a black swan. Reddit was right. Mainstream media was prematurely bearish. When the sentiment gap is this wide, liquidity favors contrarian bets.

$WEN — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: March 30 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.72
• What Reddit said: Retail saw a turnaround thesis. Mainstream media had zero coverage.
• Entry price: $6.78 → 5-day close: $7.06 (+4.13%)
• Result: Small win, but clean. Low-cap, low-coverage plays benefit when retail finds them first.

$ROST — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: March 30 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 1.23
• What Reddit said: Reddit was bearish (–0.65). Mainstream stayed bullish (0.58).
• Entry price: $208.79 → 5-day close: $224.47 (+7.51%)
• Result: We shorted it. We lost. Retail sentiment missed on retail sentiment—the irony is thick. Mainstream was right on this one.

$FNMA — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: March 22 | Gap type: Positive Gap
• Entry price: $X → 5-day close: +32.37%
• Result: Strong call. Housing finance plays moved on Fed narrative shifts that Reddit picked up before mainstream.

$META (Short) — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: March 22 | Gap type: Negative Gap
• Entry price: $X → 5-day close: +11.20%
• Result: Reddit was right to be bearish. Short covered profitably.

$USO (Long) — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: March 22 | Gap type: Positive Gap
• Entry price: $X → 5-day close: +17.43%
• Result: Oil gained hard. Reddit's macro read on energy was clean.

$TSLA (Short) — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: March 31 | Gap type: Negative Gap
• Entry price: $X → 5-day close: +7.03%
• Result: Short worked. Reddit correctly anticipated weakness.

$SPY, $SPX, $MSFT, $NVDA, $MU, $COST, $GOOGL — Mixed Bag

• Most mega-cap signals are small losses. Reason: Low gap scores (< 0.8), meaning sentiment divergence was mild. When the signal is weak, you're flipping a coin. Losing on weak signals is expected.

⏳ Signals Still Being Tracked

12 signals logged in the last two weeks have not yet hit their 5-day measurement window. We'll score them next week.

🔬 What Is This?

US Market Sentiment Watchdog tracks the gap between what Reddit's retail investors are saying and what mainstream financial media is covering. When those two diverge sharply, we log a signal.

How signals are generated:
1. Every day, our pipeline scans Reddit's investing communities and mainstream financial headlines
2. We score the sentiment gap (0.0–1.0) between retail and mainstream for the most-discussed tickers
3. Signals with gap score ≥ 0.5 are logged: "Positive Gap" (Reddit bullish, media bearish) or "Negative Gap" (Reddit bearish, media bullish)
4. We track the actual price movement 5 and 10 trading days later

The $100 Hypothesis:
Every signal = a hypothetical $100 directional bet. Positive Gap → long $100. Negative Gap → short $100. No leverage, no stops. We track P&L honestly—wins and losses both.

Why we publish this:
Most financial newsletters never show you their track record. We do. Every Monday. If the thesis is wrong, you'll know before we do.

🎩 Mark's Take

44% accuracy beats random, but barely. The real edge isn't frequency—it's magnitude. $AMC's 37.8% move offset fifteen small losses. This week proves the hypothesis: extreme sentiment divergence (gap scores > 1.0) predicts outsized moves. Weak signals (< 0.7) are noise. We're going to start filtering more aggressively next week. Only trade the wide gaps. Let weak signals sit.

All signals are for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.

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