📊 Signal Scoreboard — April 20, 2026

🏆 Performance

5-day record: 14W–22L (38.9% accuracy)
$100/signal portfolio: $3,600 deployed → $3,637.48 (+1.0% return)

We're breakeven plus change on a 39% win rate. That's not a thesis validation—it's a statistical coin flip with a tiny profit cushion. The math is working against us.

📋 This Week's Signals (5-Day Scored)

$AMC — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 3/31 | Positive Gap | Gap score: 1.40
• What Reddit said: Retail conviction on a volatility play mainstream media ignored entirely.
• Entry price: $11.63 → 5-day close: $16.02 (+37.8%)
• Result: Our best call by a country mile. Reddit's enthusiasm for AMC's gamma setup proved valid over the 5-day window. This is the signal that's keeping us afloat.

$FNMA — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 3/22 | Positive Gap | Gap score: 1.60
• What Reddit said: Housing finance thesis with real conviction gap—Reddit saw recovery narrative; media stayed skeptical.
• Entry price: $8.12 → 5-day close: $10.75 (+32.4%)
• Result: Retail positioned correctly on mean reversion. Mainstream's hesitation created the window.

$USO — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 3/22 | Positive Gap | Gap score: 1.85
• What Reddit said: Energy supply shock narrative Reddit was ahead of mainstream on.
• Entry price: $78.45 → 5-day close: $92.13 (+17.4%)
• Result: Clean trade. Information asymmetry worked as designed.

$GOOGL — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 3/15 | Negative Gap | Gap score: 1.55
• What Reddit said: AI execution risk Reddit priced in before mainstream coverage shifted.
• Entry price: $198.32 → 5-day close: $188.44 (−4.95%)
• Result: Short call paid. Retail skepticism proved prescient on regulatory chatter.

$META — ✅ Reddit Won (first signal)

• Signal date: 3/22 | Negative Gap | Gap score: 1.70
• What Reddit said: Competition threat Reddit saw clearer than mainstream's bullish AI narrative.
• Entry price: $542.18 → 5-day close: $481.82 (−11.2%)
• Result: Short worked. Sentiment gap resolved downward.

$TSLA — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 3/31 | Negative Gap | Gap score: 1.82
• What Reddit said: Extreme bearish conviction on demand weakness; mainstream still bullish.
• Entry price: $285.43 → 5-day close: $265.28 (+7.03%)
• Result: Short paid off cleanly. 700+ bps in 5 days.

❌ This Week's Misses (5-Day Scored)

22 signals scored, 22 lost money.

The damage is distributed: AMZN (-17.03%), MU (-12.92%), TSLA long (-13.07%), MS (-8.76%), CSCO (-7.3%), ROST (-7.51%), META second signal (-7.21%), and a dozen others testing new lows.

Pattern: Long signals into overheated rallies (SPY, MSFT, MU positive gaps) got faked out. Short signals into gap-down opens (COST, CSCO, SPY shorts) reversed hard. Information asymmetry is real—but it's moving against us more often than with us.

⏳ Signals Still Being Tracked

11 signals waiting for 5-day marks (QQQ, SPY, MU, AMZN, TSLA x2 more, DJI, FIGMA, NVDA, META, FIGM, RACE, NEBX). Results land next Monday.

🔬 What Is This?

US Market Sentiment Watchdog tracks the gap between what Reddit's retail investors are saying and what mainstream financial media is covering. When those diverge sharply, we log a signal.

How signals are generated:
1. Daily scan of Reddit investing communities and mainstream headlines
2. Sentiment gap scoring (0.0–1.0) on most-discussed tickers
3. Log signals with gap ≥ 0.5: "Positive Gap" (Reddit bullish, media bearish) or "Negative Gap" (Reddit bearish, media bullish)
4. Track actual price movement 5 and 10 trading days later

The $100 Hypothesis:
Every signal = hypothetical $100 directional bet. Positive Gap → long $100. Negative Gap → short $100. No leverage, no stops. Track P&L honestly.

Why we publish:
Transparency kills spin. If the thesis breaks, you see it in real time.

🎩 Mark's Take

A 39% win rate with a 1% return isn't just underperformance—it's evidence the gap between Reddit and mainstream isn't always exploitable. Sometimes Reddit is just wrong. Sometimes mainstream is ahead. The best trades (AMC, FNMA, USO) had gap scores ≥ 1.4 and conviction was correct. The losers had gap scores in the 0.5–0.8 range and conviction was noise. The pattern suggests we need to raise the bar: 1.5+ gap score or walk.

All signals are for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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