📊 Signal Scoreboard — April 27, 2026

🏆 Performance

5-day record: 21W–23L (47.7% accuracy)
$100/signal portfolio: $4,400 deployed → $4,460.14 (+1.4% return)

We're barely above water. 44 signals scored in 5 days, and we're winning just under half the time. The math is simple: retail sentiment gaps are real, but they're not reliably predictive on short timeframes. Yet.

📋 This Week's Signals (5-Day Window)

$AMC — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 2026-03-31 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.91
• What Reddit said: Retail traders saw a setup mainstream media completely ignored — classic AMC vol compression before a move.
• Entry price: $28.16 → 5-day close: $38.80 (+37.8%)
• Result: This is why we're still alive. Reddit nailed the directional call. The gap was real, the move was violent, and we caught it.

$AVGO — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 2026-04-07 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.82
• What Reddit said: Retail conviction on semiconductor strength while mainstream media was still hedging on macro uncertainty.
• Entry price: $261.44 → 5-day close: $310.56 (+18.8%)
• Result: Another clean win. AI chip tailwinds + retail early recognition = money.

$INTC — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 2026-04-08 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.79
• What Reddit said: Intel turnaround story gaining traction among retail. Mainstream still skeptical.
• Entry price: $64.06 → 5-day close: $74.44 (+16.2%)
• Result: Retail was ahead of the reversal narrative. Solid execution on the thesis.

$FNMA — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 2026-03-22 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.77
• What Reddit said: Housing market stabilization signals retail caught early.
• Entry price: $77.38 → 5-day close: $102.51 (+32.4%)
• Result: Outsized move. This one validated the entire approach.

$ROST — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: 2026-03-30 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 0.73
• What Reddit said: Retail was bearish on retail earnings. Mainstream indifferent.
• Entry price: $89.43 → 5-day close: $96.15 (+7.5%)
• Result: Worst call of the week. We shorted, market went up. Gap score was high, move was against us. This is the noise we can't eliminate yet.

$AMZN (short) — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: 2026-04-06 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 0.81
• What Reddit said: Retail saw AWS margin concerns that mainstream ignored.
• Entry price: $207.18 → 5-day close: $224.33 (-17.0% on short)
• Result: Wrong direction. Retail was positioned for a pullback that never came. Market momentum overpowered the sentiment gap.

⏳ Signals Still Being Tracked

19 signals posted from April 18–27 are not yet scoreable (less than 5 trading days old). These include DJI, FIGMA, NVDA, META, UNH, AMKR, SAVE, CAR, GOOGL, BT, and INTC (second signal). We'll have full 5-day P&L on these by May 5.

🔬 What Is This?

US Market Sentiment Watchdog tracks the gap between what Reddit's retail investors are saying and what mainstream financial media is covering. When those two diverge sharply, we log a signal.

How signals are generated:
1. Every day, our pipeline scans Reddit's investing communities and mainstream financial headlines
2. We score the sentiment gap (0.0–1.0) between retail and mainstream for the most-discussed tickers
3. Signals with gap score ≥ 0.5 are logged: "Positive Gap" (Reddit bullish, media bearish) or "Negative Gap" (Reddit bearish, media bullish)
4. We track the actual price movement 5 and 10 trading days later

The $100 Hypothesis:
Every signal = a hypothetical $100 directional bet. Positive Gap → long $100. Negative Gap → short $100. No leverage, no stops. We track P&L honestly — wins and losses both.

Why we publish this:
Most financial newsletters never show you their track record. We do. Every Monday. If the thesis is wrong, you'll know before we do.

🎩 Mark's Take

We're at 47.7% accuracy with a positive portfolio return. That's not because the thesis is right — it's because our winners (AMC +37.8%, FNMA +32.4%, AVGO +18.8%) are outsized, while our losers are capped at typical market noise. The bad news: we're not better than a coin flip on directional prediction. The good news: the reddit-media gap creates asymmetric payoff. Retail gets it right less often, but bigger. We'll take that trade.

All signals are for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.

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