📊 Signal Scoreboard — May 04, 2026

🏆 Performance

5-day record: 25W–31L (44.6% accuracy)
$100/signal portfolio: $5,600 deployed → $5,660.54 (+1.1% return)

We're barely above breakeven on a weak win rate. The $60 realized gain came from concentrated bets: $AMC alone pulled in $37.76, and three other positions ($FNMA, $USO, $AVGO) each added $16–$18. Strip those four winners and we're underwater. This is not a functioning edge—it's noise with lucky survivors.

📋 This Week's Signals (Last 14 Days)

$UNH — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: Apr 22 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.85
• What Reddit said: Retail bullish on earnings catalyst; mainstream coverage lagging retail sentiment.
• Entry price: $353.52 → 5-day close: $370.48 (+4.8%)
• Result: Clean win. Reddit community moved faster than media digested the catalyst. Retail timing edge held for five days.

$AMKR — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: Apr 23 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.78
• What Reddit said: Strong bullish AI infrastructure narrative; zero mainstream validation.
• Entry price: $72.91 → 5-day close: $71.09 (-2.5%)
• Result: Reddit was early. No follow-through. Gap enthusiasm did not translate to price support.

$SAVE — ⏳ Pending

• Signal date: Apr 23 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.68
• What Reddit said: Retail greed on Trump admin rescue deal hopes; no mainstream narrative yet.
• Status: No price data yet. Too fresh to score.

$CAR (Short) — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: Apr 23 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 0.62
• What Reddit said: Retail bearish with conviction; mainstream absent.
• Entry price: $229.14 → 5-day close: $185.55 (-19.0%)
• Result: Reddit was right. Hard short. Retail sentiment led the decline before media caught up.

$CAR (Long) — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: Apr 24 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 1.57
• What Reddit said: Reversal bounce narrative; mainstream negative (-0.85 score).
• Entry price: $229.14 → 5-day close: $208.19 (-9.0%)
• Result: This is our worst call. We shorted CAR on Apr 23, then turned bullish 24 hours later at almost the exact same price. Gap score of 1.57 should have been a red flag—too extreme, unstable sentiment. Whipsaw loss.

⏳ Signals Still Being Tracked

12 signals from the past week are still accumulating data. Next Monday's scoreboard will show which ones broke through.

🔬 What Is This?

US Market Sentiment Watchdog tracks the gap between what Reddit's retail investors are saying and what mainstream financial media is covering. When those two diverge sharply, we log a signal.

How signals are generated:
1. Every day, our pipeline scans Reddit's investing communities and mainstream financial headlines
2. We score the sentiment gap (0.0–1.0) between retail and mainstream for the most-discussed tickers
3. Signals with gap score ≥ 0.5 are logged: "Positive Gap" (Reddit bullish, media bearish) or "Negative Gap" (Reddit bearish, media bullish)
4. We track the actual price movement 5 and 10 trading days later

The $100 Hypothesis:
Every signal = a hypothetical $100 directional bet. Positive Gap → long $100. Negative Gap → short $100. No leverage, no stops. We track P&L honestly — wins and losses both.

Why we publish this:
Most financial newsletters never show you their track record. We do. Every Monday. If the thesis is wrong, you'll know before we do.

🎩 Mark's Take

We're at breakeven on thin air. A 44.6% win rate is a failing strategy—it's a coin flip with worse odds. The fact that $AMC saved the week tells you everything: we have no systematic edge. We have one-off winners buried in structural noise.

The $CAR whipsaw is the canary. When gap scores spike above 1.5, when sentiment reverses 180° in 24 hours, that's not an edge—that's instability. We need to either (a) raise the signal threshold to 0.65+ and cut the noise, or (b) admit the reddit-vs-mainstream thesis needs rework. Next Monday, we'll know if the pending signals break our way. If not, we pivot.

All signals are for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.

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