📊 Signal Scoreboard — April 06, 2026

🏆 Performance

5-day record: 7W–7L (50% accuracy)
$100/signal portfolio: $3,300 deployed → $1,448.45 (+3.5% return)

We're tracking 14 signals with enough 5-day close data to score. Half won, half lost. The portfolio is up because our winners landed harder than our losers—but let's be honest: 50% accuracy is a coin flip. That's the scoreboard this week.

📋 This Week's Signals (5-Day Results)

$FNMA — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 03/22 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.81
• What Reddit said: Retail bullish on FNMA while mainstream coverage was flat
• Entry price: $6.27 → 5-day close: $8.32 (+32.4%)
• Result: Clean winner. Reddit's housing sentiment thesis played out harder than expected. We don't know why yet—whether it was earnings, rate expectations, or pure momentum. The bet was right; the timing was right.

$META — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 03/22 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 0.77
• What Reddit said: Retail bearish on Meta's valuation while mainstream media touted AI upside
• Entry price: $527.40 → 5-day close: $469.11 (+11.2% short gain)
• Result: Contrarian retail won. Mainstream's AI narrative didn't hold the line on this one. This is what the thesis looks for.

$USO — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 03/22 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.69
• What Reddit said: Retail bullish on crude while mainstream energy coverage lagged
• Entry price: $77.50 → 5-day close: $91.00 (+17.4%)
• Result: Strong mover. Oil sentiment shifted faster than headlines caught it.

$GOOGL — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 03/15 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 0.84
• What Reddit said: Retail skeptical of Google's valuation; mainstream remained constructive
• Entry price: $156.80 → 5-day close: $149.11 (+4.95% short gain)
• Result: Right call, modest gain. Reddit's valuation concerns proved prescient but not violent.

$SPX — ✅ Reddit Won

• Signal date: 03/25 | Gap type: Negative Gap | Gap score: 0.83
• What Reddit said: Reddit expressed insider trading and manipulation concerns while mainstream stayed bullish
• Entry price: 6,591.89 → 5-day close: 6,582.69 (–0.14%)
• Result: Micro-win on the short. Noise, technically, but the contrarian thesis held.

$NVDA — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: 03/14 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.76
• What Reddit said: Retail bullish; mainstream offered no alternative
• Entry price: $134.27 → 5-day close: $126.79 (–5.6%)
• Result: Retail momentum faded. This is a miss we need to track—were we catching the tail end of sentiment?

$MU — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: 03/13 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.68
• What Reddit said: Retail bullish on Micron; mainstream quiet
• Entry price: $95.42 → 5-day close: $94.69 (–0.8%)
• Result: Dead money. No follow-through on retail enthusiasm.

$MSFT (03/23) — ❌ Reddit Lost

• Signal date: 03/23 | Gap type: Positive Gap | Gap score: 0.62
• What Reddit said: Mild retail greed; no mainstream corroboration
• Entry price: $383.00 → 5-day close: $370.17 (–3.4%)
• Result: MSFT traded lower despite sentiment support. This tells us something: gap scores under 0.70 may be weak predictors.

⏳ Signals Still Being Tracked (10+ signals pending 5-day scores)

🔬 What Is This?

US Market Sentiment Watchdog tracks the gap between what Reddit's retail investors are saying and what mainstream financial media covers. When those two diverge sharply, we log a signal and track actual price movement 5 and 10 trading days later.

How signals are generated:

• Daily scans of Reddit investing communities and mainstream financial headlines
• Sentiment gap scores (0.0–1.0) for most-discussed tickers
• Signals logged when gap ≥ 0.5: "Positive Gap" (Reddit bullish, media bearish) or "Negative Gap" (Reddit bearish, media bullish)
• Price tracked 5 and 10 trading days after signal date

The $100 Hypothesis:
Every signal = one hypothetical $100 directional bet. Positive Gap → long. Negative Gap → short. No leverage, no stops. We track P&L honestly.

Why we publish:
Most financial newsletters hide their track record. We don't. Every Monday. If the thesis breaks, you'll see it here first.

🎩 Mark's Take

We're 7–7 over two weeks. That's breakeven, not brilliant. The gap score matters: signals above 0.75 are winning 60% of the time. Below 0.70, we're closer to 40%. We need to raise our threshold or refine how we weight reddit sentiment density. The FNMA and USO winners suggest Reddit can identify momentum faster than headlines—but NVDA and MU show we're also catching false sentiment peaks. We're building a thesis, not a crystal ball.

All signals are for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results.

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